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☆ 3 Facts That Help Explain a Confusing Economic Moment
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-13 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The path to a “soft landing” doesn’t seem as smooth as it did four months ago. April 13, 2024The economic news of the past two weeks has been enough to leave even seasoned observers feeling whipsawed. Compared with the outlook in December, when the economy seemed to be on a glide path to a surprisingly smooth “soft landing,” the recent news has been disappointing. And yet inflation, even accounting for its recent hiccups, has cooled significantly, while the rest of the economy has so far escaped significant damage. “It seems churlish to complain about where we are right now,” said Wendy Edelberg, director of the Hamilton Project, an economic policy arm of the Brookings Institution.

Persons: ”, Wendy Edelberg Organizations: Hamilton, Brookings Institution

☆ Undocumented immigrants are boosting the labor market and helping the US avoid recession, experts say
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Undocumented immigration has boosted the labor market, helping steer the US away from a recession, some experts say. Morgan Stanley's chief US economist has also recently cited undocumented immigration as a positive labor-market force. AdvertisementHere's a question that's been lurking beneath the stellar economic resilience in the US: how has the labor market stayed so strong? "It has boosted the labor force, it has boosted supply for labor, it has boosted job gains. AdvertisementThe labor market has recorded gains stronger than that, posting an addition of 275,000 jobs in February.

Persons: Morgan Stanley's, —, Wendy Edelberg, Tara Watson, Watson, Ellen Zentner, Zentner Organizations: Brookings Institution, Service, Congressional, Office, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg, Brookings

☆ What’s getting more expensive — and cheaper — at the grocery store
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

That’s the lowest annual increase registered since June 2021 and a far cry from the 11.8% increase registered in December 2022. Overall food prices were up 0.2% on a monthly basis, matching the rate of increase seen in November, CPI data shows. Eggs and ham prices went up the most in December as compared to other food categories tracked in the CPI. Ham prices rose 2.6% for the month (2.9% excluding canned ham), BLS data showed. The latest Consumer Price Index showed that grocery prices rose only 1.3% for the year ended in December.

Persons: New York CNN —, Bill Adams, chow, Wendy Edelberg, Ash Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, Comerica Bank, CPI, The Hamilton Project, Brookings, CNN, Bloomberg Locations: New York, Ham, United States

☆ CPI: America’s final inflation report for 2023 just came in
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Economists were expecting the annual overall inflation rate to tick higher, to 3.2% from the 3.1% headline reading the month before, according to FactSet consensus estimates. Despite the acceleration, the annual rate of consumer-level inflation is down considerably from December 2022’s rate of 6.5%; additionally, a closely watched measure of underlying inflation slowed further. In December, core goods prices were flat, an apparent stalling out after six months of declines. Rising shelter costs have kept core services elevated. The central bank has a target inflation rate of 2%, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, which has its latest reading due out later this month.

Persons: “, ” Wendy Edelberg, ” “, ’, Brian Coulton, Fitch, ” Scott Anderson, Jerome Powell, Joe Brusuelas, ” Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, BLS, The Hamilton Project, Brookings, CNN, Federal, BMO, CPI, PCE, RSM Locations: New York, November’s

Yet according to a raft of polls and surveys, most Americans hold a glum view of the economy. Polls consistently show that most Americans disapprove of Biden's handling of the economy. I hear that from my family.”That's particularly true for some of the goods and services that Americans pay for most frequently: Bread, beef and other groceries, apartment rents and utilities. “Partly because the country is more polarized.”Even so, many Americans, like Charles, are still feeling the pain of inflation. Even if it does, the higher pay may come with a time lag.

Persons: they’re, Joe Biden, Lisa Cook, Cook, ”, Wendy Edelberg, Katherine Charles, Charles, “, ” Charles, Maximus, Eileen Cassidy Rivera, ” Rivera, Karen Dynan, George W, Bush, Obama, Edelberg, ” Edelberg, haven't, Brad Hershbein, Anthony Murphy, Murphy, Aparna Jayashankar, ” Hershbein Organizations: WASHINGTON, Associated Press, NORC, for Public Affairs Research, Federal Reserve's Board of Governors, Duke University, “, Brookings Institution, Medicare, Affordable, Teamsters, Biden, House, Republicans, University of Michigan's, Harvard, Upjohn Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Locations: U.S, Tampa , Florida, autoworkers, ”

☆ Instant View: Fitch downgrades U.S. foreign currency ratings to 'AA+' from 'AAA'
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

The downgrade follows a debt ceiling agreement in June that came after months of political brinkmanship and ultimately lifted the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. Unless they think that fiscal trajectory suggests risk of a default, which I don't think they say, I don't understand the reason for this." “So I don't think the reaction, it should surprise anyone in the markets because we've been through this before. JACK ABLIN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, CRESSET WEALTH ADVISORS IN PALM BEACH, FLORIDA"I'm surprised, but I'm not surprised." "It's really the just the troubled negotiations that take place every time we have a debt ceiling or budget negotiation.

Persons: Thomas White, Fitch, STEVEN RICCHIUTO, ” WENDY EDELBERG, I'm, JASON WARE, Fiitch, MICHAEL O’ROURKE, “, ” BERNARD BAUMOHL, Poor’s, ” MICHAEL SCHULMAN, ANGELO KOURKAFAS, EDWARD JONES, ”, MICHAEL K, FARR, That’s, ” KEITH LERNER, ” “ It’s, ERIC WINOGRAD, ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN, QUINCY KROSBY, doesn't, JACK ABLIN, it's Organizations: REUTERS, United, AAA, USA, ., OF, HAMILTON PROJECT, BROOKINGS, WASHINGTON D.C, ALBION, Fitch, AA, PRINCETON, NEW, ST LOUIS, MILLER & WASHINGTON LLC, ADVISORY, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: United States, U.S, MIZUHO, WASHINGTON, CITY , UTAH, STAMFORD , CONNECTICUT, NEW JERSEY, ATLANTA, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA, BEACH , FLORIDA

☆ Inflation just fell when rate hikes were paused. So why should the Fed keep hiking?
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

But last month’s inflation report was an outlier — for the first time, the declines weren’t immediately preceded by a rate hike from the Federal Reserve. One month doesn’t dictate a trendFed Chair Jerome Powell has said it time and time again: One month’s data is not indicative of a trend. Powell repeatedly stresses that the Fed takes a data-dependent approach to interest rate decisions. In Schoenholtz’s view, the Fed should continue to hike interest rates even though inflation slowed down sharply in June despite the central bank holding rates steady. If the Fed waits too long to raise interest rates, it could risk its credibility, leading to a persistently higher price level that’s harder for the Fed to crack down on.

Persons: weren’t, Jerome Powell, ”, Kermit Schoenholtz, Powell, “, Wendy Edelberg, they’ve Organizations: New, New York CNN, Labor Department, Federal, CPI, Kermit Schoenholtz , New York University, Citigroup, Fed, Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution, CNN Locations: New York, Kermit Schoenholtz , New

"The risk of a downgrade is exacerbated every time Congress flirts with the debt ceiling," said Calvin Norris, Portfolio Manager & US Rates Strategist at Aegon Asset Management, who sees another downgrade as still a risk. Economic damage from the 2011 and 2013 debt ceiling battles had a chilling impact. Rating agency Fitch and other smaller agencies recently placed the U.S. credit rating under review. Reuters GraphicsCASCADE EFFECTInvestors use credit ratings as one of the metrics to assess the risk profiles of governments and companies. In the 2013 debt ceiling crisis the legislative standoff did not cause a rating downgrade, although Fitch placed its rating under review.

Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Joe Biden, Leah Millis, Calvin Norris, Wendy Edelberg, Edelberg, Fitch, William Foster, ”, Andy Sparks, Olivier d'Assier, Peter Crane, MSCI's Sparks, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Nick Zieminski Organizations: U.S, White, REUTERS, Senate, Republicans, Aegon Asset Management, AAA, Government, Office, The, Brookings Institution, Moody's, Moody’s Investors Service, Applied Research, Crane, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, United States, Washington, APAC, Qontigo

☆ In the Market: Amid the calm, the Fed brews the next storm
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Paritosh Bansal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Earlier this month, Chairman Jay Powell said the Fed's monetary policy and financial stability tools were "working well together," allowing it to support banks and pursue price stability. But several people in the market believe not only is the regional banking sector still under stress, multiple other risks to financial stability also remain. Tighter monetary policy could well cause them to blow up or worsen the impact of other shocks, such as debt ceiling negotiations. "The Fed has no desire to conduct monetary policy through financial crises," said Wendy Edelberg, director of The Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. In its most recent financial stability report earlier this month, the Fed listed several areas of concern, including life insurance and some types of bond and loan funds.

☆ Opinion: The ultimate ‘Succession’ lesson
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( Richard Galant | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +13 min

We’re looking back at the strongest, smartest opinion takes of the week from CNN and other outlets. Walt Handlesman/Tribune Content AgencyIn a much more ominous vein, the theme of survival dominates the HBO show “Succession,” which is coming to an end Sunday. She’s so caught up in beating her brothers at the succession game that she can’t see this baby as anything but an obstacle.”“Ultimately, this storyline is a perfect encapsulation of the larger tragedy that is ‘Succession,’” Bodenheimer added. The contest for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination heated up last week with the official entry of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former President Donald Trump’s strongest challenger in the polls.

In that instance, S&P Global Ratings credit rating agency downgraded the government from AAA to AA+ credit rating. The federal government maintains a perfect credit rating from Fitch and Moody’s, but that could change as the stalemate drags on. Investors care about stability and predictability, so a credit rating downgrade would send a chill down Wall Street’s spine. The broadest economic impact of a US debt default would be a recession that would encompass the global economy, including sharp job losses. And the housing market would not be spared by the “economic calamity” of a US government default, as Yellen once described it.

☆ Job gains and inflation have to slow to avoid recession, says Brookings’ Wendy Edelberg
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJob gains and inflation have to slow to avoid recession, says Brookings’ Wendy EdelbergWendy Edelberg, a Brookings Institutions economic studies senior fellow, and Kevin Hassett, former Council of Economic Advisers chairman under President Donald Trump, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest jobs numbers, consumer spending, and whether a recession can be avoided.

☆ The Fed could easily drive Black unemployment much higher than the overall jobless rate
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

However, the jobless rate isn’t expected to be that low for long. While that’s a small improvement from the central bank’s previous 4.6% jobless rate estimate, economists say it’s possible the unemployment rate could rise above the Fed’s expectations. It can be difficult to slow an unemployment spiralEconomists say it’s hard to guess the trajectory of the unemployment rate this year, noting it could very well exceed the Fed’s estimate. As such, the Fed’s tightening efforts could easily drive the Black unemployment rate much higher than the overall jobless rate, said William Spriggs, an economics professor at Howard University and chief economist to the AFL-CIO. The Black unemployment rate will easily get to 9% in that scenario.”One other likely consequence of growing unemployment is slowing wage growth, Bivens said.

☆ The Fed must bring down goods spending to control inflation, says Brookings' Wendy Edelberg
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed must bring down goods spending to control inflation, says Brookings' Wendy EdelbergWendy Edelberg, a Brookings Institutions economic studies senior fellow, and Kevin Hassett, former Council of Economic Advisers chairman under President Donald Trump, join CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss how the Federal Reserve should tame inflation.

☆ Consumer spending anomalies are the new norm: podcast
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Jennifer Saba | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

NEW YORK, Nov 29 (Reuters Breakingviews) - High inflation and glum sentiment are changing how people use their money. In this edition of The Exchange podcast, Brookings Institution economist Wendy Edelberg explains what shoppers are loath to give up during times of duress and why strange patterns will persist. Listen to the podcastFollow @jennifersaba on Twitter(The host is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. Editing by Thomas ShumOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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